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Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Rates, Credibility, and the Fed’s Expanding Power

Monetary Policy at a Crossroads: Rates, Credibility, and the Fed’s Expanding Power

The Federal Reserve’s latest decision to leave the federal funds rate unchanged—within a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%—was widely anticipated.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Shifting Ground Beneath the Calm

Shifting Ground Beneath the Calm

The surface of global financial markets looks deceptively smooth.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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US Inflation at a Crossroads: Tame Data, Political Pressure, and the Risk of Fiscal Dominance

US Inflation at a Crossroads: Tame Data, Political Pressure, and the Risk of Fiscal Dominance

Inflation in the United States has entered a paradoxical phase.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The Macroeconomics of Artificial Intelligence in 2026

The Macroeconomics of Artificial Intelligence in 2026

By 2026, artificial intelligence has moved decisively from experimental technology to a central driver of macroeconomic dynamics.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The U.S. Labor Market at an Inflection Point: Slowing Employment, Policy Friction, and the AI Valuation Paradox

The U.S. Labor Market at an Inflection Point: Slowing Employment, Policy Friction, and the AI Valuation Paradox

The U.S. labor market has entered a distinctly different phase of the economic cycle.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Maduro’s Capture and the Re-Opening of Venezuela

Maduro’s Capture and the Re-Opening of Venezuela

A Structural Shift in Global Oil and a Generational Opportunity for U.S. Private Equity

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Potential Impacts of a U.S. Military Incursion in Venezuela on Crude Oil Prices and Futures

Potential Impacts of a U.S. Military Incursion in Venezuela on Crude Oil Prices and Futures

Crude oil markets have begun to price in elevated geopolitical risk as tensions between the United States and Venezuela intensify, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The U.S. Cost of Living: Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Persistence of Household Strain

The U.S. Cost of Living: Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Persistence of Household Strain

The U.S. economy has entered a phase best described as macroeconomic normalization without microeconomic relief.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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A World of Debt: Why the Global Economy Is Entering a Critical Phase

A World of Debt: Why the Global Economy Is Entering a Critical Phase

The global economy is approaching a turning point in the way public debt shapes development.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Holiday Spending Resilience Amid Inflation Pressures: What Black Friday 2025 Reveals About the U.S. Economy

Holiday Spending Resilience Amid Inflation Pressures: What Black Friday 2025 Reveals About the U.S. Economy

The 2025 holiday shopping season has opened with a striking paradox that underscores the complex state of the U.S. economy:

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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U.S. State GDP and Industry Performance, Q2 2025: Divergent Growth Across the Economic Landscape

U.S. State GDP and Industry Performance, Q2 2025: Divergent Growth Across the Economic Landscape

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released its second-quarter 2025 data on gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income by state, alongside 2024 personal consumption expenditure figures.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The Classic Macroeconomic Cycle: From Jobs to the Fed to Markets

The Classic Macroeconomic Cycle: From Jobs to the Fed to Markets

For over half a century, the U.S. economy has moved to a familiar rhythm — employment weakens, the Federal Reserve reacts, and financial markets adjust.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio