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Potential Impacts of a U.S. Military Incursion in Venezuela on Crude Oil Prices and Futures

Potential Impacts of a U.S. Military Incursion in Venezuela on Crude Oil Prices and Futures

Crude oil markets have begun to price in elevated geopolitical risk as tensions between the United States and Venezuela intensify, raising concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The U.S. Cost of Living: Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Persistence of Household Strain

The U.S. Cost of Living: Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Persistence of Household Strain

The U.S. economy has entered a phase best described as macroeconomic normalization without microeconomic relief.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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A World of Debt: Why the Global Economy Is Entering a Critical Phase

A World of Debt: Why the Global Economy Is Entering a Critical Phase

The global economy is approaching a turning point in the way public debt shapes development.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Holiday Spending Resilience Amid Inflation Pressures: What Black Friday 2025 Reveals About the U.S. Economy

Holiday Spending Resilience Amid Inflation Pressures: What Black Friday 2025 Reveals About the U.S. Economy

The 2025 holiday shopping season has opened with a striking paradox that underscores the complex state of the U.S. economy:

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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U.S. State GDP and Industry Performance, Q2 2025: Divergent Growth Across the Economic Landscape

U.S. State GDP and Industry Performance, Q2 2025: Divergent Growth Across the Economic Landscape

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has released its second-quarter 2025 data on gross domestic product (GDP) and personal income by state, alongside 2024 personal consumption expenditure figures.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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The Classic Macroeconomic Cycle: From Jobs to the Fed to Markets

The Classic Macroeconomic Cycle: From Jobs to the Fed to Markets

For over half a century, the U.S. economy has moved to a familiar rhythm — employment weakens, the Federal Reserve reacts, and financial markets adjust.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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U.S. Private Employment: A Modest Rebound Amid Structural Shifts

U.S. Private Employment: A Modest Rebound Amid Structural Shifts

After two months of contraction, the U.S. private labor market finally saw a modest rebound in October 2025, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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2 Signals, Some Noise

2 Signals, Some Noise

Last week offered two potent signals amid the haze of political theatre and macroeconomic crosscurrents:

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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U.S. International Investment Position, Q2 2025: Trends, Shifts, and Outlook

U.S. International Investment Position, Q2 2025: Trends, Shifts, and Outlook

The U.S. net international investment position (NIIP)—the difference between what U.S. residents own abroad and what foreigners own in the United States—stood at –$26.14 trillion at the end of the second quarter of 2025.

Gaston Brizuela Bosio
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Scott Bessent’s $20 Billion Bet: How Washington Is Wagering on Argentina’s Comeback

Scott Bessent’s $20 Billion Bet: How Washington Is Wagering on Argentina’s Comeback

In a rare alignment of fiscal discipline, monetary orthodoxy, and international diplomacy, Argentina is staging a comeback few would have thought possible just a year ago.

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The Gold Run: Repricing Trust in the Age of Monetary Excess

The Gold Run: Repricing Trust in the Age of Monetary Excess

For most of the postwar era, the U.S. dollar has stood as the cornerstone of the international monetary system—a global benchmark for value, liquidity, and safety.

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Macroeconomic Volatility as a Wealth Destroyer

Macroeconomic Volatility as a Wealth Destroyer

The last decade has redefined how investors perceive risk. The U.S. economy, once anchored by predictable cycles, now oscillates between expansion and contraction amid structural shifts, inflationary persistence, and policy volatility.