Macro View

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Brings Relief to Oil Markets, but Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Persist

The ceasefire agreement signed by the United States and Iran on June 17 marks a significant de-escalation in a conflict that had threatened one of the world's most important energy chokepoints.

AI and the Labor Market: Early Signals, Not a Full Disruption

Artificial intelligence has rapidly moved from a futuristic concept to a mainstream business tool.

AI, Productivity and the Solow Growth Channel: Why Higher A Matters Now

AI as the New Engine of Solow Growth

Global Supply Chains Enter a New Phase of Persistent Friction

Global supply chains are once again becoming a central macroeconomic concern.

Economic Policy Uncertainty Reaches Levels Reminiscent of Past Global Crises

Global economic policy uncertainty has risen sharply over the past year, reaching levels that increasingly resemble periods associated with major systemic shocks such as the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Structural Decline of U.S. Dollar Purchasing Power Since the Nixon Shock

The long-term erosion of the U.S. dollar’s purchasing power represents one of the most important macroeconomic developments of the modern financial era.

Who Is Paying the Tariff?

The cleanest answer is also the least politically convenient one: American consumers and firms are paying most of it.

The $80 Billion Tournament: How the 2026 FIFA World Cup Becomes a US Economic Engine

The 2026 FIFA World Cup is not just expanding the game to 48 teams and 104 matches.

The Dollar’s Softer Era Is Rewriting the Rules for Emerging Markets

The global monetary system is entering a more fluid phase.

Human Capital to Financial Capital

Education, Earnings Dynamics, and the Economics of Wealth Formation

Jobless Claims Rise to 219,000—Still Below Long-Term Averages

U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 219,000 in the week ending April 4, up from 203,000 the prior week, marking a 7.9% week-over-week rise.

Global Interest Rate Divergence and the Repricing of Sovereign Risk