LatAm Capital, AI Medicine, and the Carve Out Comeback

Good morning, ! This week we're covering Private Capital Fundraising for Latin America, AI healthtech special segment based on an expert call with David Crean, global PE/VC carve-outs heading into 2026,GPs expectations for portfolio exits in flagship funds, and a macro-comparison between Japan and its global peers.

Juniper Square helps PE GPs deliver a modern investor experience without giving up operational control — combining purpose-built software and fund administration services in one connected model. As investor expectations rise and fund structures grow more complex, firms need fewer handoffs, fewer failure points, and a stronger system of record behind every LP interaction. Book a demo →

DATA DIVE

The Great Rebalancing

Latin America’s Private Capital story just pulled a quiet pivot. What used to be a Private Equity-first market is now a four-lane highway: PE (28%), Infrastructure (27%), Private Credit (23%), and Venture Capital (23%)—almost perfectly split.

Why it matters: diversification didn’t dilute discipline. It sharpened it.

Zoom in: while strategies multiplied, capital concentrated. Established GPs captured 88% of fundraising in 1H 2025, up from 61% in 2020. Meanwhile, first-time funds are now rounding errors.

The paradox: more managers, less access to capital.

Add in performance dispersion—IRRs ranging from negative to mid-teens—and LP behavior starts to look less like preference and more like survival.

Bottom line: LatAm isn’t just growing up—it’s getting selective. Strategy choice matters. But manager selection matters more. (More)

Expert Call

AI, Capital Concentration, and the HealthTech Barbel

Insights from David Crean from Cardiff Advisory

Healthcare VC is no longer evenly distributed—it’s becoming a barbell market. In our expert call, David H. Crean explained how the 2021 funding boom artificially expanded the middle, driven by cheap capital and weak fundamentals. As rates rose, that structure collapsed.

Today, AI is absorbing a disproportionate share of capital—often rationally, given its impact on drug discovery and clinical efficiency. But not all AI is equal. Investors now demand real-world evidence, scalable revenue models, and defensible data moats. (More)

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TREND TO WATCH

Carve Outs Are Back But Not Broad Based

After collapsing to roughly $21B in 2023, global PE and VC carve out activity has rebounded to $75.0B in 2024, with $65.2B already recorded in 2025 year to date. That is a meaningful recovery, but still well below the $116.1B peak in 2021 and even trailing $69.9B in 2022.

The pattern matters more than the headline. This is not a full market reopening. It is a selective return driven by corporates under pressure to streamline portfolios and sponsors willing to underwrite complexity where others will not. The sharp drop in 2023 shows how sensitive carve outs are to financing conditions and execution risk. The rebound shows that those constraints are easing, but not disappearing.

Strategically, carve outs are re emerging as a sourcing edge rather than a volume game. The firms winning here are not chasing auctions. They are partnering with corporates, underwriting operational separation risk, and pricing complexity correctly. In a slower deal environment, that is one of the few places where proprietary alpha still exists. (More)

PRESENTED BY JUNIPER SQUARE

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The LP experience can make or break fundraising because investors remember how it feels to work with your firm: onboarding, responsiveness, reporting, and the confidence they have in the numbers.

That experience is only as strong as the operating model behind it. When fund and investor data live across disconnected systems, delays and inconsistencies show up fast.

Juniper Square is the fund operations partner for PE GPs, combining software + fund administration services built on a common data foundation. That means fewer failure points, clearer visibility across investor workflows, and a modern investor experience powered by a single source of truth.

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COMPLIANCE CORNER

Systemic Risk Reporting: Navigating the Upsurge in Leverage and Fund Size Disclosures

Systemic risk reporting for private equity is evolving sharply under the SEC's expanded Form PF requirements, aimed at mitigating financial system vulnerabilities by monitoring fund size, leverage, and liquidity risks. These changes reflect heightened scrutiny amid concerns about private funds' growing footprint and interconnectedness in the broader financial ecosystem.

Why it matters: The SEC and Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) have amplified data demands, focusing not only on fund assets under management but increasingly on leverage metrics and event-driven disclosures such as margin calls and significant withdrawals. This shift recognizes that large or highly leveraged funds can amplify market stress, especially in volatile conditions. New event-based reporting timelines require near-real-time notifications to regulators, underscoring the urgency of operational readiness.

Key regulatory angle: Although compliance deadlines have been extended to allow firms to refine systems and controls, enforcement risk is rising. Recent SEC actions have targeted failures in timely event reporting, inaccurate disclosures, and deficient data governance controls. As regulators deepen data-driven systemic surveillance, quality and completeness of reported information become compliance linchpins.

Bottom line for PE firms: Prepare now. Establish robust data governance and internal controls tailored to granular reporting of leverage, counterparty exposures, and liquidity terms. Implement procedures for swift identification and escalation of triggering events to meet accelerated reporting deadlines. Engage legal and compliance advisors to navigate evolving Form PF requirements and anticipated supervisory scrutiny. Staying ahead reduces enforcement risk and positions firms to support systemic risk monitoring shaping the future regulatory landscape. (More)

LIQUIDITY CORNER

From Frozen to Functional

Private equity’s Liquidity Engine is finally sputtering back to life—just don’t call it a comeback.

55% of GPs expect more exits in 2026, but most of that sits in the “moderately more” camp (38%). Translation: pipelines are reopening, not overflowing.

What’s driving it? Start with pent-up exit pressure. Holding periods are stretched, and funds don’t have the luxury of waiting forever. Add narrowing valuation gaps and a more cooperative financing environment, and suddenly deals are… doable again.

But let’s not get carried away. 32% expect no change, and only 17% see a meaningful uptick.

Bottom line: Liquidity is back online—but running on low power. Enough to move deals forward, not enough to clear the backlog. (More)

MACROVIEW

Rates, Liquidity, and What It Means for Firms

Interest rates are not moving in sync. Japan is lifting off from near-zero, while the U.S. and U.K. remain tight, keeping borrowing costs elevated across global markets.

For companies, this isn’t abstract. Debt is more expensive, refinancing windows are narrower, and investor expectations on returns are rising. At the same time, currency swings are becoming harder to ignore as rate gaps shift capital across regions.

There’s also a second-order effect: as yields rise in Japan, some capital that once flowed abroad may stay home. That reduces a key source of global liquidity and can quietly push financing costs higher elsewhere.

In practical terms, firms should stay close to their funding timelines, watch interest exposure, and be deliberate about large commitments. The environment isn’t uniformly tight—but it is less forgiving and more selective than it has been in years. (More)

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