The Smart Money Is Rethinking Multiples

Good morning, ! This week we're covering private equity experts valuation multiples expectations, yield across fixed income, global venture fundraising, and Thoma Bravo taking Accelerant private. 

Know someone who would love this? Pass it along—they’ll thank you later! Here’s the link.

Join PE150 and Caplink for our AI & Data Insight Breakfast in London. Register here.

MICROSURVEY

Valuation Multiples Are Moving, Just Not Together

Private market valuations appear poised for movement, but the next cycle is unlikely to lift all assets equally.

Our latest PE150 microsurvey finds that 54% of respondents expect valuation multiples to expand over the next 12 months, compared with 40% who anticipate contraction and just 6% who expect valuations to remain stable. Beneath those numbers, however, expectations vary considerably by market participant.

Bankers are the most constructive, with 54% expecting expansion, while corporate development respondents lean even more heavily toward moderate multiple growth. Consultants are more cautious, with 60% anticipating some degree of contraction.

The divergence points toward an increasingly selective valuation environment. Improving financing conditions and greater macroeconomic visibility could support transaction activity, but capital is unlikely to reward every asset equally. Businesses with durable growth, strong cash generation, defensible positions, and credible AI-driven opportunities could command increasingly significant premiums.

For sponsors, the question may no longer be simply whether multiples expand. It is which companies will earn that expansion, and which will be left behind.

Read More

PRESENTED BY DYNAMO SOFTWARE

Turn Your AI Readiness Score Into a Roadmap

You've seen your DynamoAI Readiness score — now turn it into a plan.

Whatever the assessment revealed, the path forward is the same: consolidate fragmented data, integrate your tooling, align your team, and build a real AI roadmap. That's exactly what Dynamo is built for.

For 25+ years, Dynamo has been the platform of choice for 1,000+ alternative investment firms managing over $10T in assets. Our end-to-end platform — spanning deal management, investor relations, portfolio monitoring, and fund accounting — gives your firm the data foundation and integrated infrastructure that make AI adoption not just possible, but impactful.

Book a demo and our team will walk you through how Dynamo closes the specific gaps your assessment surfaced — plus what a tailored implementation roadmap looks like for your firm.

Haven't taken the AI Readiness Assessment yet? Take it here.

PRIVATE CREDIT CORNER

Yield Without the Duration

Direct lending is offering something fixed income investors rarely get at the same time: the highest yield on the chart with effectively no duration.

At roughly 9% yield, direct lending sits above U.S. high yield at about 7.5%, emerging market corporate debt at roughly 6.3%, and investment grade credit near 5.2%. The bigger distinction is duration. While investment grade bonds carry roughly 7 years of duration and Treasuries sit near 6 years, direct lending is effectively at zero.

That combination matters because floating rate private loans can preserve income without taking the same sensitivity to longer term interest rate moves. Investors are being paid more while assuming less duration risk.

For private equity sponsors, there is a second order effect. If allocators continue finding attractive income in direct lending, private credit managers should have more capital available to compete for sponsor backed financings.

Bottom line: Direct lending is not just competing with banks. At these yields, it is competing with the entire fixed income portfolio. (More)

HEADLINE OF THE WEEK

Venture’s Fundraising Hangover

Venture capital’s fundraising machine has yet to find its second wind. After global capital raised peaked at $416B in 2022, fundraising fell to $267B in 2023, $229B in 2024, and just $146B in 2025. Through Q2 2026, managers have raised another $99B.

The more interesting story is what happens downstream. Less capital entering venture funds today means less capital competing for companies tomorrow. That could force managers to concentrate dollars behind their strongest portfolio companies while leaving weaker businesses with fewer financing options.

For private equity and growth investors, the reset may eventually become a sourcing opportunity. Venture backed companies that once had ample access to follow on capital could increasingly need strategic buyers, structured capital, or growth equity to fund the next stage.

Bottom line: Venture’s fundraising slowdown is not just an LP story. If the capital drought persists, it could reshape who finances the next generation of growth companies and at what price. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Thoma Bravo Bets $4B+ on Specialty Insurance With Accelerant

Thoma Bravo is taking specialty-insurance risk exchange Accelerant private in a deal valued at more than $4B enterprise value, paying $20.25/share in cash—a 49% premium to the unaffected share price. About 82% of voting rights are already committed to the transaction, which is expected to close in 1H 2027.

The deal is another example of PE targeting differentiated financial infrastructure rather than traditional insurers. Accelerant connects specialty insurance capital with underwriting businesses, giving Thoma Bravo exposure to a market where data, technology and risk analytics increasingly drive competitive advantage.

For PE, the bigger signal is the premium: sponsors remain willing to pay up for businesses with structural growth and defensible platforms, even as public-market take-privates remain highly selective.

Bottom line: Thoma Bravo isn't just buying an insurer. It's betting that the infrastructure behind specialty insurance can compound faster than the broader market.

Read more

DEALS TRACKER

~$650M | Francisco Partners → Weave Communications
Francisco Partners agreed to acquire Weave Communications for $7.40/share in cash, valuing the vertical SaaS company at ~$650M equity value and representing a 34% premium. The take-private is expected to close in Q4 2026. Read more

Undisclosed | Checkr → Truv
Checkr acquired Truv, expanding its employment and income verification platform into mortgage and government benefits verification. The transaction was announced and completed on August 18, 2026. Read more

~$60B | SpaceX → Cursor (Anysphere)
SpaceX completed its acquisition of Cursor in an all-stock transaction on August 14, issuing 389.3M Class A shares at an implied $60B equity value. The deal ranks among the largest technology acquisitions ever completed. Read more

Undisclosed | Providence Equity Partners → Hometrack
Providence Equity Partners agreed to acquire Hometrack, the UK/Netherlands residential valuation and property-risk data provider serving 16 of the top 20 UK mortgage lenders. The transaction remains subject to regulatory approvals. Read more

INTERESTING ARTICLES