Private Equity’s Exit Problem Is Getting Bigger

Good morning, ! It’s Thursday, and private equity’s liquidity problem is getting harder to ignore. Sponsors are sitting on a record 33,575 unsold portfolio companies, while traditional exit routes remain under pressure, pushing the market toward secondaries, continuation structures and other ways to manufacture liquidity.

At the same time, AI is moving deeper into the investment lifecycle, banks are rethinking ownership of strategic assets, and sponsors are finding new opportunities across payments, infrastructure and technology.

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REGIONAL FOCUS

Brazil’s Capital Markets Are Getting Harder to Ignore

Brazil’s capital markets have expanded dramatically over the past decade. The number of trades climbed from roughly 20 million in 2004 to more than 650 million in 2024, while annual traded value rose from less than BRL 0.5T to nearly BRL 6T.

The acceleration was particularly pronounced after 2019, with trading activity and value traded surging through 2021. Activity has since normalized, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

For private equity, that matters beyond the headline numbers. A deeper and more liquid capital market can provide sponsors with a broader ecosystem for financing, portfolio-company exits and public-market alternatives. It also signals a more sophisticated pool of domestic capital capable of supporting larger transactions.

Bain’s 2026 Brazil PE report points to a market that is increasingly supported by structural drivers rather than simply cyclical recovery. The opportunity, however, comes with Brazil’s familiar complications: rates, FX and macro volatility.

Bottom line: Brazil’s PE opportunity is becoming less about betting on a rebound—and more about accessing a capital market that has materially deepened over the past decade.

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PRIVATE CREDIT CORNER

The $523 Million Reset

BlackRock TCP Capital is giving private credit investors a reminder that senior secured does not mean immune from liquidity pressure.

The BDC is transferring 95% of a continuation vehicle holding roughly $523 million across 78 companies to Pantheon. That portfolio represented about 48% of TCPC’s debt investments by fair value. The payoff is immediate: leverage is expected to fall from 1.38x to just 0.4x.

But deleveraging comes with a bill. TCPC expects NAV to decline roughly 10.4%, or $0.68 per share, following the transaction.

The interesting part is the structure. Rather than dumping individual credits, TCPC is using the secondaries market to manufacture liquidity while retaining exposure through direct investments and a 5% stake in the continuation vehicle.

For sponsors and lenders, that creates a new playbook for stressed portfolios. Private credit secondaries are becoming more than an exit channel. They are increasingly a balance sheet management tool, allowing lenders to trade NAV today for flexibility tomorrow.

Bottom line: When liquidity gets tight, even lenders need a secondary market. (More)

HEADLINE OF THE WEEK

34,000 Companies and a Shrinking Exit Door

Private equity’s inventory problem keeps getting bigger. At the end of June, sponsors were sitting on 33,575 unsold portfolio companies, up from 32,451 at the end of 2025 and more than double the 15,923 held a decade ago.

The issue is not just aging portfolios. Exit channels are narrowing at the same time. Q2 exit value fell to roughly $100 billion, nearly half Q1 levels, while sponsor to sponsor sales dropped almost 40% sequentially to their lowest quarterly level in at least a decade.

IPOs are providing some relief, accounting for roughly one third of Q2 exit proceeds versus about 10% in Q1. But public markets cannot absorb an inventory this large.

For GPs, the math is getting uncomfortable. Longer holds delay distributions and tie up capital, while selling into weaker markets risks sacrificing returns.

Bottom line: The next PE cycle may be defined less by finding deals and more by finding exits for the 34,000 already owned. (More)

PRESENTED BY CAPLINK X PE 150

You’re invited: Where AI Meets Private Equity

Artificial intelligence has moved beyond experimentation. The real question for private equity firms is no longer whether to adopt AI, but how to turn it into measurable value across the investment lifecycle.

On November 18, PE150 and CapLink Group will host the AI / Data & Insight Private Capital Breakfast, an invitation-only gathering at London's May Fair Hotel that will bring together operating partners, deal teams, portfolio executives, and technology leaders to discuss what AI adoption actually looks like inside private equity.

The morning will feature three practitioner-led discussions:

• AI Into Value Creation — How leading firms are transforming AI from dashboards into repeatable value creation playbooks across portfolio companies. Sponsored by Exact Insight.

• AI Across the Investment Lifecycle — Practical applications spanning sourcing, due diligence, investment decisions, and portfolio management. Sponsored by our M&A Technology Partner Datasite.

• Building the AI-Enabled Private Equity Firm — The operating models, data strategies, and organizational capabilities required to scale AI successfully.

Interested in attending? Register or request the full agenda here.

Interested in sponsoring? Email [email protected] 

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Francisco Partners Takes Moneris Private as Banks Trade Ownership for Partnership

Francisco Partners is acquiring Moneris, Canada’s largest merchant-payments platform, from BMO and RBC for approximately C$2.0B in cash. The deal takes a major payments asset out of bank ownership—but with an important twist: BMO and RBC will retain long-term exclusive referral agreements with Moneris.

For Francisco Partners, the transaction is less about simply buying a payments business and more about separating ownership from distribution. Moneris gets the flexibility of an independent sponsor-backed company while preserving access to two of Canada’s largest banks as customer channels.

The deal also reflects a broader PE playbook: carve out strategically important assets from large financial institutions, then use a more focused ownership structure to pursue growth and operational value creation.

For BMO and RBC, meanwhile, the economics are not limited to the sale proceeds. They monetize the asset while maintaining a commercial relationship with a business that sits at the center of their merchant ecosystem.

Bottom line: Francisco Partners is betting that Moneris can create more value as an independent payments platform—without having to leave its banking roots entirely.

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DEALS TRACKER

Undisclosed | Boeing → Archer Aviation (Wisk Aero, SkyGrid & Insitu assets)
Boeing will transfer its Wisk Aero, SkyGrid, Insitu and other autonomy/UAS assets to Archer, while retaining a 19.75% stake and becoming a major technology partner. Closing is expected by year-end 2026. Read more

~$1.0B | Bernhard Capital Partners → Bowman Consulting Group
Bernhard Capital agreed to take Bowman Consulting private for $43/share in cash, a 58% premium and ~$1.0B valuation. The deal includes $605.2M of BCP equity and $550M of debt commitments. Read more

~$2.15B | Nielsen → DoubleVerify
Nielsen agreed to acquire DoubleVerify for $13.60/share in cash, taking the ad-verification company private at ~$2.15B EV. The deal is expected to close in Q1 2027. Read more

Undisclosed | AMD → Taalas
AMD agreed to acquire AI inference chip startup Taalas, adding its technology to AMD’s Instinct and Helios roadmap. Taalas had previously raised $219M in venture funding. Read more

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