Private Credit’s Par Problem, PayPal’s $53B Bid & More

Good morning, ! It’s Thursday, and this week’s newsletter is about the market’s growing preference for scale, structure, and selective liquidity.

Private credit secondaries are showing that a deal priced at par does not necessarily mean buyers are paying par. In fintech, Stripe and Advent’s $53B+ bid for PayPal is the latest reminder that strategic scale still commands a premium. And across the deal market, capital continues to concentrate around assets tied to the biggest secular themes: AI infrastructure, industrial technology, and digital platforms.

The common thread? Liquidity is available—but increasingly on terms that reward quality, scale, and a convincing strategic story.

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PRIVATE CREDIT CORNER

Par on Paper, Discounts Underneath

Private credit continuation vehicles are clearing at premium looking prices, but the headline does not tell the whole story.

At least five recent transactions have priced at a nominal premium to par, including Audax’s $1 billion, Arcmont’s $2.5 billion, and TPG Twin Brook’s $3 billion continuation vehicles. Arcmont’s deal was even oversubscribed.

But buyers are not simply paying up. Secondaries investors can secure better effective economics through delayed settlements, portfolio discounts to NAV, and other structural mechanisms. GPs get the optics of pricing at or above par for LPs, while buyers preserve their target returns.

The bigger signal is the widening divide beneath those headline numbers. Several other private credit continuation processes have reportedly been pulled after weaker pricing than GPs expected.

The market is becoming increasingly selective. Strong managers with quality portfolios and deep investor relationships can manufacture liquidity on attractive terms. Weaker processes may struggle to clear at all.

Bottom line: Private credit secondaries are not one market anymore. Pricing is increasingly separating the assets investors want to own from those they are only willing to buy at the right discount. (More)

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DEAL OF THE WEEK

Stripe and Advent Want to Buy PayPal. The Fintech Arms Race Just Got Bigger.

Stripe and Advent International have made a joint offer to acquire PayPal for more than $53 billion, offering $60.50 per share, or roughly a 28% premium to PayPal’s prior closing price. The proposal is backed by approximately $50 billion in bank financing, with Stripe and Advent reportedly set to become equal owners.

Strategically, the deal would combine Stripe’s merchant infrastructure with PayPal’s massive consumer network, including Venmo. In other words: Stripe gets distribution, PayPal gets a new owner willing to spend heavily on a turnaround. The transaction would also create one of the world’s largest payments platforms, processing an estimated $3.7 trillion annually.

The catch? PayPal’s board reportedly views the offer as undervaluing the company, setting up a familiar M&A ritual: the “strategic combination” that begins with a $53 billion bid and ends with everyone discovering the number was merely a starting point.

Why it matters: This is a bet that scale still wins in fintech—and that a business trading far below its former peak can be worth more in the hands of a buyer with a sharper strategic playbook. For PE, it is also a reminder that platform assets with large user bases and embedded financial infrastructure remain highly attractive, even when growth has stalled.

Read more

MICROSURVEY

Credit Markets & Financing Conditions

DEAL TRACKER

$40B | Aligned Data Centers → AIP, MGX & BlackRock GIP
One of the largest private infrastructure deals ever, covering 51 data center campuses and 6.4GW of capacity. The consortium is also committing $5B in growth capital to expand AI-ready infrastructure. Read more

$4.2B | Kakaku.com → EQT & Digital Garage
EQT raised its tender offer to ¥3,450/share, outbidding a rival offer from LY Corp and Bain Capital. The deal highlights the growing competition for high-quality public-to-private opportunities. Read more

$1.2B | Gregg Distributors → Brookfield PE
Brookfield is acquiring the family-owned Canadian industrial distributor, with employees retaining a meaningful stake. Another bet on essential services and industrial distribution. Read more

$720M | FUTRONIC → Blackstone
Blackstone is acquiring a controlling stake in the Korean precision actuator maker, which serves automotive OEMs and the emerging humanoid robotics market. Read more

Also worth watching: Honeywell’s $1.7B Catalyst Technologies acquisition and Truelink Capital’s ~$1B acquisition of Lyons Magnus.

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