Good morning, {{first_name}}! Today we're covering private credit market remaining surprisingly concentrated , energy shocks becoming financing shocks, and GE Aerospace $11.75B bet.
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MICROSURVEY
Most Attractive Macro-Driven Investment Theme
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PRIVATE CREDIT CORNER
Private Credit Is Concentrated Where It Counts
Private credit may look like an increasingly crowded market, but the capital base remains surprisingly concentrated. As of Q3 2025, private debt funds account for 54.7% of the market, more than every other lender category combined.
BDCs provide the second major pool of capital. Perpetual life BDCs hold 18.7%, public BDCs 12.4%, and private BDCs 5.4%. Together, private debt funds and BDCs represent roughly 91% of lender share. By comparison, middle market CLOs account for just 5.9%, while interval funds sit at 3.0%.
For sponsors, the implication is straightforward: financing capacity remains heavily dependent on a relatively small set of private capital channels. More vehicles may be entering the market, but the largest pools still set the tone on pricing, structure, and borrower access.
Bottom line: Private credit is broadening at the edges, but the center of gravity remains firmly with private debt funds and BDCs. (More)
HEADLINE OF THE WEEK
Oil Shock Reprices the Cost of Capital
Oil is back in the driver’s seat. Brent crude has climbed to $97.5 per barrel, up nearly 8% in one week and 35% from late February, while diesel prices are roughly 90% higher than before the war.
The bigger issue for private markets is not energy costs alone. It is what they could force central banks to do next. Markets now assign a 58% probability to a Federal Reserve rate increase in September and 70% in October. The ECB is expected to lift rates to 2.5%, while markets see a 75% chance of a Bank of Japan increase this month.
For sponsors, that changes the underwriting conversation quickly. Higher financing costs pressure leverage, valuations, refinancing economics, and exit multiples at the same time.
The takeaway: energy shocks are becoming financing shocks. Deals underwritten around cheaper debt may need another look, while businesses with pricing power and lower energy sensitivity become considerably more attractive. (More)
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DEAL OF THE WEEK
GE Aerospace’s $11.75B Bet on the Supply Chain
GE Aerospace is acquiring Consolidated Precision Products (CPP) from Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners for $11.75 billion, turning a mission-critical aerospace supplier into one of the week’s largest sponsor exits.
The transaction, signed September 8, values CPP at roughly 18x 2027 EBITDA, including net synergies. GE will fund $7 billion in cash, with the remainder financed through new debt, and expects the deal to close in the second half of 2027.
The strategic logic is straightforward: CPP manufactures specialized castings used across commercial and defense aerospace, giving GE greater control over a critical piece of an increasingly constrained supply chain. For Warburg Pincus and Berkshire Partners, that strategic scarcity helped turn an industrial asset into an $11.75B exit.
The PE takeaway: Strategic buyers are still willing to pay premium multiples when sponsors own assets that solve operational bottlenecks. In aerospace, supply-chain control isn't just procurement anymore—it's worth paying 18x EBITDA for.
DEALS TRACKER
~$5.3B | WaFd → EverBank Financial
WaFd agreed to a reverse merger with sponsor-backed EverBank Financial, creating a combined bank with roughly $75B in assets and providing an exit path for investors including Stone Point Capital, Warburg Pincus, Reverence Capital Partners, Sixth Street and Bayview Asset Management. Read more
A$1.94B | Warburg Pincus → Ingenia Communities
Warburg Pincus made an A$1.94B buyout offer for Ingenia Communities, the Australian retirement communities and holiday parks operator, but the proposal was rejected—highlighting the continued valuation tension around real assets and take-private opportunities. Read more
~$1.285B | Bending Spoons → Airtable
Bending Spoons completed its ~$1.285B all-cash acquisition of Airtable, marking its first deal since its July Nasdaq listing and adding the collaborative software platform to its expanding technology portfolio. Read more
$500M | Apollo → Cumberland Farms
Apollo agreed to invest $500M in convertible preferred shares of TDR Capital-backed Cumberland Farms, providing fresh capital after the convenience-store operator’s recent IPO filing and highlighting another flexible private capital solution alongside the public exit route. Read more
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