Good morning, {{First Name}}! KKR just landed a $17B insurance exit. Private credit underwriting tech is moving from experiment to infrastructure, the traditional 60/40 portfolio is losing some of its defensive magic, and AI infrastructure keeps pulling private capital into data centers and power.

Plus, hyperscaler AI spending is heading toward $1.3T, while PE firms face a more practical question: how to turn AI adoption into actual returns.

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Join PE150 and Caplink for our AI & Data Insight Breakfast in London.  Register here.

MICROSURVEY

Despite an uncertain deal environment, our latest PE150 survey suggests capital is preparing to move. Across all respondents, 42% expect investment activity to increase over the next 12 months, including 19% anticipating a significant increase. Another 26% expect activity to remain unchanged.

But the optimism is not evenly distributed.

Bankers are the most constructive, with 46% expecting increased activity. Corporate development teams and asset managers follow at 40% each. PE sponsors are the clear outlier: 55% expect deployment to decline, including 33% anticipating a significant decrease.

That divergence could define the next deal cycle. More activity does not necessarily mean easier deployment. If bankers and strategic buyers become more active while sponsors remain selective, competition could concentrate around a smaller universe of attractive assets.

For PE firms, dry powder alone will not be an advantage. Proprietary sourcing, sector conviction, and disciplined underwriting become more valuable when everyone wants the same companies. (More)

PRIVATE CREDIT CORNER

Third party underwriting technology is moving from experiment to infrastructure. Adoption among private credit lenders is expected to double from 10% in 2025 to 20% in 2026, and the reason may be less about technological breakthroughs than simple economics.

Switching costs are low. That makes it easier for lenders to test external underwriting tools without rebuilding their entire credit process. As more firms experiment, technology can move deeper into screening, diligence, and credit assessment while investment committees retain the final call.

For private credit managers, the competitive risk is straightforward. If third party tools make underwriting faster or expand the number of opportunities a team can evaluate, early adopters gain a sourcing and execution advantage without making a massive infrastructure bet.

The bigger question is what happens after adoption doubles. When everyone has access to similar technology, the edge shifts from owning the tool to knowing how to use its output better.

Bottom line: Low switching costs accelerate adoption. Investment judgment remains the moat. (More)

HEADLINE OF THE WEEK

For decades, bonds did more than generate income. They gave investors somewhere to hide when equities stumbled. The chart suggests inflation has scrambled that relationship.

From 1986 to 2020, portfolios with heavier bond allocations still generated relatively resilient returns. From 2021 to 2025, the picture changed dramatically. The bond heavy end of the spectrum delivered the weakest results, while returns improved sharply as stock exposure increased.

That matters beyond public markets. If bonds provide less reliable diversification during inflationary periods, institutional allocators have a stronger reason to reconsider what actually plays the defensive role in a portfolio. Private credit, infrastructure, and other cash generating private assets could receive more attention as investors search for income without relying exclusively on traditional fixed income.

For PE managers, that could mean a larger structural allocation to alternatives rather than a temporary rotation.

Bottom line: The classic portfolio hedge looks less dependable when inflation is the problem. Capital may increasingly migrate toward private markets to fill the gap. (More)

PRESENTED BY CAPLINK X PE 150

Artificial intelligence has moved beyond experimentation. The real question for private equity firms is no longer whether to adopt AI, but how to turn it into measurable value across the investment lifecycle.

On November 18, PE150 and CapLink Group will host the AI / Data & Insight Private Capital Breakfast, an invitation-only gathering at London's May Fair Hotel that will bring together operating partners, deal teams, portfolio executives, and technology leaders to discuss what AI adoption actually looks like inside private equity.

The morning will feature three practitioner-led discussions:

Interested in attending? Register or request the full agenda here.

Interested in sponsoring? Email [email protected]

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Aon is acquiring USI Insurance Services for $17B in cash, handing KKR one of the more notable sponsor exits of the year. The deal was announced August 31 and is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to customary approvals.

For KKR, the transaction reportedly represents roughly 6.0x its 2017 equity investment in USI—a reminder that strategic buyers can still provide meaningful liquidity for mature PE assets even as the broader exit environment remains uneven.

For Aon, the rationale is scale. USI expands its position in the U.S. middle-market insurance brokerage business and builds on its acquisition of NFP, further consolidating a sector prized for recurring revenues, fragmented competition and cross-selling potential.

The PE takeaway: At $17B, this is more than a large exit. It’s another example of strategics becoming an increasingly important release valve for sponsor-held assets—and of insurance brokerage remaining fertile ground for consolidation at scale.

Read more

DEALS TRACKER

~$4.1B | SLB → Kelvion
SLB agreed to acquire Apollo-backed Kelvion for ~$3.4B in cash plus ~$0.7B of assumed debt, giving SLB greater exposure to AI-driven data center cooling infrastructure. Read more

S$6.6B | KKR & Singtel → STT GDC
KKR and Singtel completed their S$6.6B acquisition of ST Telemedia Global Data Centres, a major bet on Asia’s expanding AI and digital infrastructure market. Read more

£2.7B | Permira & CPP Investments → JTC
Permira and CPP Investments completed the £2.7B take-private of JTC, adding a major fund-services business to the growing universe of PE-backed private markets infrastructure. Read more

~$2B | KKR → A1 Garage Door Service
KKR agreed to acquire A1 Garage Door Service from Cortec Group for around $2B, highlighting continued sponsor appetite for fragmented, scalable residential services platforms. Read more

Undisclosed | MacLean Power Systems → Delta Star
Blackstone- and Centerbridge-backed MacLean Power Systems agreed to acquire Delta Star, expanding its exposure to transformers and power-grid infrastructure as electricity demand accelerates. Read more

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