Gold, Real Estate, and Inflation Walk Into a Bar While LatAm Funds Raise Big

Good morning, ! This week we're covering the capital raised by Latin America focused funds, the new SEC regulation, and the gold vs US real estate vs inflation race.

Sponsor Spotlight: 9fin powers top PE deal teams with debt market intelligence across HY/BSL loans, Private Credit, and CLOs — combining best-in-class editorial with AI that analyzes 4,000+ issuers to track covenants, refinancing risk, and credit deterioration so you can spot issues and opportunities earlier. Request a free trial →

DATA DIVE

Real Estate: The Inflation Anchor Hiding in Plain Sight

2.7% headline CPI. That’s where inflation stood in December 2025. But look under the hood and the story shifts. Shelter rose 3.2% YoY and 0.4% MoM, outpacing headline inflation and remaining the single largest contributor to price persistence. Housing alone represents ~40% of the CPI basket and roughly 33% of household spending, making it the structural anchor of inflation—not a side effect.

Over the past decade, U.S. home prices have climbed ~101%, materially outpacing cumulative inflation across multiple cycles—low-rate stimulus, tightening regimes, and post-pandemic normalization alike.

The takeaway for private equity: if inflation is embedded in housing, then real estate is not just a hedge—it’s a transmission mechanism. Unlike gold or financial derivatives, property reprices alongside wages, replacement costs, and rents. In an environment where essentials drive the CPI narrative, real assets with pricing power look less like defensive ballast—and more like structural alpha.

Read our Full Report HERE

TREND TO WATCH

From Liquidity Party to Discipline Era

Latin America private equity just completed a full market cycle in 10 years.

2015–2017: uneven recovery.
2018–2021: expansion.
2022–2025: global reset.

Fundraising peaked at $8.55B in 2021, collapsed to $2.83B in 2022, then rebounded to $8.05B in 2024. As of October 2025: $1.73B—lumpy, not linear.

The drivers are familiar: interest rates, risk repricing, and a frozen exit environment. But the rebound tells a different story. Capital didn’t leave. It became selective.

What’s changed?
More institutionalized GPs, tighter LP underwriting, and rising sector specialization in tech, infrastructure, and climate.

The question is no longer whether Latin America is investable.
It’s which managers will clear the new bar.

Momentum made the last cycle.
Fundamentals will define the next one. (More)

PRESENTED BY 9FIN

The Debt Market Intelligence Platform Powering the Top PE Deal Teams

No one can afford to miss critical information regarding specific companies, sectors or industries. 9fin's platform provides best in class editorial coverage across the HY/BSL loan, Private Credit and CLO markets, ensuring clients have all the information needed to make critical portfolio decisions.

9fin's AI algorithms continuously analyze 4,000+ issuers across leveraged finance, tracking covenant packages, refinancing windows, and credit deterioration that impact valuations. See the intelligence platform restructuring advisors use to spot opportunities before the market moves and leading PE firms rely on to de-risk investments faster.

Request Free Trial

LIQUIDITY CORNER

Private Capital AUM $24.5T and Counting

Stat: Private capital AUM is projected to reach $24.5T by 2025, up from $14.5T in 2020. Traditional drawdown funds still dominate at $16.3T, but the fastest growth is in LP demand driven vehicles at $4.8T and higher liquidity products at $1.8T, more than doubling from $0.8T in 2020. Permanent capital also climbs to $1.8T.

Context: The mix is shifting. Investors are not just allocating more to private markets, they are demanding structures that offer flexibility. Semi liquid funds, evergreen vehicles, NAV facilities, and continuation strategies are becoming structural features rather than cycle driven fixes.

Strategic Takeaway: Liquidity is no longer a side conversation. As more capital flows into flexible formats, GPs who cannot engineer optionality risk losing share. The next competitive edge is not just sourcing and operations. It is designing products that balance duration with deliverable cash flow. (More)

MACROVIEW

Productivity Is Doing the Heavy Lifting

Across a sample of 183 countries with Economic Development data from 1960 to 2019, output per worker grew 2.54% annually. Roughly 1.9% came from Total Factor Productivity, while capital deepening contributed just 0.31% and human capital 0.06%

Output per hour shows the same pattern. Growth averaged 2.83%, with 2.17% from TFP, and capital’s contribution actually negative at –0.23%

Yes, short run regressions show capital’s coefficient near 0.9, far above the theoretical 0.33. But that likely reflects simultaneity. Productivity shocks drive both output and investment

For private equity, the takeaway is simple. Not all GDP growth is created equal. If growth is credit fueled rather than productivity driven, it will not compound. The real diligence question is not how fast an economy is growing. It is whether productivity is improving underneath it. (More)

COMPLIANCE CORNER

Cybersecurity Is Now Exam-Ready

The SEC just turned Regulation S-P into a live-fire drill.

Starting December 3, 2025 (larger advisers) and June 3, 2026 (smaller firms), PE managers must maintain formal, written incident response programs—covering detection, containment, recovery, and documentation. No more informal playbooks.

The headline: 30-day breach notification to affected clients when sensitive data is compromised.

But the real pressure point? Third-party oversight. Vendors, fund admins, IT providers—if they touch your data, they’re now squarely in exam scope. Expect scrutiny on risk assessments, governance controls, and operational resiliency.

Add rising expectations around ransomware readiness, AI-driven fraud risks, and disclosure alignment.

The message from the SEC Division of Examinations: cybersecurity isn’t IT hygiene. It’s a compliance obligation.

Document it. Test it. Board it.

Because in 2026, “we’re working on it” won’t cut it. (More)

"The biggest risk of all is not taking one."

Mellody Hobson