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- Canada Rebounds to $365.9B — But Deal Volume Stalls
Canada Rebounds to $365.9B — But Deal Volume Stalls
Big checks are back — but the fine print on risk is getting louder.
Good morning, ! Today we're covering Thoma Bravo’s $12B logistics tech consolidation play, the quiet rise of PIK interest reshaping private credit risk, Canada’s big-ticket deal rebound without volume recovery, and the growing LP scrutiny around continuation vehicle governance and valuation fairness.
Sponsor Spotlight: Juniper Square presents a new report on the rise of modern fund formats — breaking down what’s driving GPs beyond traditional closed-end structures and why shifting investor profiles, liquidity expectations, and faster operating cadences are changing what “good operations” looks like. Get the report →
REGIONAL FOCUS
Canada’s Big-Ticket Comeback
From $225.9B in 2015 to the liquidity-fueled peak of $506.8B in 2021, the market rode cheap leverage and sponsor dry powder to historic highs. Then came gravity. By 2023–2024, value settled near $210–225B, while deal counts fell back to ~2,650 annually.
Here’s the tell: 2025 value rebounded to $365.9B — but volume stayed flat .
Translation? This isn’t animal spirits returning. It’s larger, conviction-driven transactions, not a middle-market stampede. Rising rates forced underwriting discipline. Sellers adjusted. Buyers got religion on discount rates. (More)
DEAL OF THE WEEK
Thoma Bravo Builds a $12B Shipping Stack
Thoma Bravo is doubling down on logistics tech, agreeing to acquire WWEX Group and merge it with portfolio company Auctane, creating a combined platform reportedly valued at $12bn.
Why it matters: This is vertical integration, private equity-style. Auctane’s cloud-based shipping software (ShipStation, Stamps.com, Metapack) meets WWEX’s freight brokerage muscle (parcel, LTL, full truckload). The result is an AI-enabled, end-to-end logistics platform spanning ecommerce checkout to final delivery.
Seller group CVC Capital Partners will roll over equity and retain a significant minority stake—always a tell.
The play: Own the data, own the volume, own the workflow. In a margin-compressed shipping market, scale plus software is the hedge.
Expected close: Q2 2026, pending approvals.
The bottom line: Thoma Bravo isn’t just shipping parcels. It’s shipping consolidation. (More)
PRESENTED BY JUNIPER SQUARE
The private markets have evolved beyond traditional closed-end funds. More GPs are launching new fund structures tailored to different investor profiles with different liquidity expectations and faster operating cadences.
That shift changes what “good operations” looks like. Investor onboarding, servicing, reporting, and communications cannot be treated as a series of handoffs across point solutions, as disconnection creates friction, inconsistency, and slower decision-making.
With all these new fund structures in play, the operating model decides who scales and who stalls. Connected fund and investor data turns execution into a competitive advantage — giving teams the speed, precision, and confidence to scale without adding friction.
Download the report to understand what’s driving the rise of new fund structures and the operational implications for GPs.
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PRIVATE CREDIT
The Rise of PIK
Borrowers are quietly rewriting the rules of cash flow management. Payment in kind interest now represents 8.8% of total investment income as of 3Q25, up from 5.2% in 2020, according to Keefe Bruyette and Woods.
The shift reflects a simple reality. Higher base rates and tighter liquidity are forcing portfolio companies to conserve cash wherever possible. PIK structures allow borrowers to defer interest payments and instead add them to the loan balance, effectively buying time when operating cash flow is under pressure.
For lenders, the tradeoff is clear. Yield looks attractive on paper, but a growing share of that income is non cash and dependent on future refinancing or exit conditions. If the macro backdrop improves, PIK works as a bridge. If it does not, lenders could find themselves holding more capitalized interest and fewer immediate dollars.
The signal for credit investors is straightforward. Rising PIK usage does not yet mean distress, but it does suggest borrowers are prioritizing liquidity over clean balance sheets. (More)
MICROSURVEY
What is the biggest concern LPs raise about continuation vehicles? |
TWEET OF THE WEEK
Download the report on the rise of new fund structures and what it means for GP operations as investor expectations and operating cadence shift. Get the report →
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"The biggest risk of all is not taking one."
Mellody Hobson