Canada M&A: From Peak Euphoria to Selective Rebound

The data underscores how both capital availability and strategic conviction have evolved since 2015.

Cycle Peak and Post-Pandemic Surge

Between 2015 and 2019, Canadian deal value climbed from $225.9B to $325.9B, with volume rising from 2,184 to 3,892 transactions. The 2018 high of $341.7B across 4,275 deals marked the late-cycle expansion phase, supported by accommodative credit and strong cross-border appetite.

The true outlier, however, was 2021. Deal value surged to $506.8B, with 5,453 transactions, the highest in the dataset. This was a liquidity-driven market: low rates, sponsor dry powder, and aggressive corporate consolidation fueled record activity. Financial sponsors competed with strategics for scarce quality assets, compressing spreads and elevating EV/EBITDA multiples.

Repricing and Discipline

The subsequent normalization was sharp. In 2022, value fell to $282.5B and volume to 3,523 deals. By 2023 and 2024, activity stabilized around $225.5B and $210.7B, respectively, with annual deal counts hovering near 2,650.

This was not a collapse in transactional capability but a repricing environment. Rising interest rates increased the cost of leverage, reducing sponsor IRR tolerance for peak valuations. Bid-ask spreads widened. Sellers anchored to 2021 pricing; buyers underwrote to higher discount rates and slower exit assumptions.

The early 2025 data suggests renewed momentum. Deal value rebounded to $365.9B, while volume held steady at 2,655 transactions. The divergence between rising value and flat volume signals a return of larger ticket transactions rather than broad-based middle-market acceleration. Capital is flowing again, but selectively.

2025 Industry Breakdown: Infrastructure and Resources Take Control

The 2025 rebound in Canadian M&A was not broad-based. It was concentrated, capital intensive, and driven by infrastructure, energy security and resource scarcity.

Aggregate Canadian M&A value reached US$389.69 billion in 2025, surpassing even 2021 levels. Notably, this expansion occurred on slightly fewer deals, underscoring the dominance of large cap transactions. In Q3 alone, transaction value hit US$131 billion, the strongest three-month stretch since Q4 2020. Globally, the same pattern emerged, with megadeals pushing total M&A value to US$3.6 trillion, up 38% year over year.

Infrastructure and Hard Assets Dominate

Utilities, energy and mining collectively generated US$195.48 billion, representing just over half of total Canadian M&A value in 2025.

From the industry data:

• Utilities: US$72.14B
  

• Energy: US$62.11B
  

• Mining: US$61.23B
  

Year-over-year growth was dramatic:

• Utilities deal value increased 82%
  

• Energy surged 257%
  

• Mining climbed 220%
  

Importantly, deal count declined across all three sectors. Capital flowed into fewer, larger transactions, signaling strategic consolidation and long-duration asset positioning rather than mid-market expansion.

The rationale is structural. Demand for power generation, transmission capacity, and energy infrastructure continues to accelerate alongside digital asset expansion and AI-driven electricity consumption. Globally, data center M&A alone attracted more than US$61 billion in 2025. Canada’s utilities and energy infrastructure became a direct beneficiary of that capital reallocation.

Mining and Gold: A Strategic Rotation

Mining’s US$61.23B total reflects renewed investor appetite for critical minerals and precious metals. Gold stood out in particular. Canadian gold deal value more than tripled in 2025, with eight transactions exceeding US$1 billion, compared to just one in 2024.

This mirrors broader global trends. Bloomberg reports metals and mining M&A activity up 61% globally and 139% in North America, reinforcing the sector’s role as both inflation hedge and electrification enabler.

Mid-Tier Sectors: Stable but Secondary

Beyond infrastructure and resources, activity was comparatively moderate:

• Commercial & Professional Services: US$26.49B
  

• Software: US$25.29B
  

• Financial Services: US$23.66B
  

• Health Care Equipment & Services: US$14.26B
  

• Insurance: US$12.55B
  

• REITs: US$10.05B
  

• Capital Goods: US$9.93B

While these sectors remain strategically relevant, they were overshadowed by hard-asset transactions in 2025. The market favored tangible infrastructure, commodity exposure and regulated cash flow over pure growth narratives.

Cross-Border Momentum

Inbound M&A doubled to US$98.45 billion, despite ongoing macro and policy uncertainty. Sixteen inbound deals exceeded US$1 billion, compared to twelve in 2024. Outbound M&A also edged higher, reflecting continued Canadian capital deployment abroad.

The 2025 message is clear. Canada became a capital destination for large-scale infrastructure and resource consolidation. Deal volume contracted, but conviction strengthened. Investors prioritized energy security, digital infrastructure capacity and critical mineral exposure over cyclical or discretionary growth plays.

Canadian acquirors completed 7,738 deals in the United States, dwarfing every other region. The UK follows at 758, Mexico at 706, and Australia at 552. Latin American exposure remains more targeted: Peru (334 deals), Brazil (269), and China (270).

The US concentration reflects structural alignment: integrated supply chains, regulatory familiarity, currency liquidity, and comparable governance standards. For private equity, this reduces execution risk and facilitates syndication and exit optionality.

The “Others” category, at 3,865 deals, signals diversified but fragmented expansion, likely including Europe and Asia-Pacific mid-market plays.

Peru: Resource-Driven Strategic Expansion

Within Latin America, Peru stands out. The 334 transactions there are primarily concentrated in the mining sector. Canadian firms have long-standing expertise in exploration, extraction, and resource financing. Peru’s copper and precious metals reserves offer scale and geological depth that align with Canadian technical capabilities.

From an investor perspective, these deals are not opportunistic. They represent thematic exposure to global electrification, energy transition metals, and commodity cycle leverage. Mining consolidation in Peru fits squarely within long-duration capital deployment strategies.

Strategic Takeaways

1. 2021 was liquidity-fueled acceleration, not a new baseline.
   
   

2. 2022–2024 reflect disciplined underwriting and capital cost recalibration.
   
   

3. 2025 indicates value recovery led by larger transactions rather than volume expansion.
   
   

4. Cross-border M&A remains US-centric, reinforcing North American integration.
   
   

5. Selective emerging market exposure, particularly Peru mining, aligns with resource and infrastructure theses.

For sponsors and strategics alike, the Canadian market is transitioning from reset to re-engagement. Capital is available. Valuations are rationalizing. The next leg of the cycle will likely reward operational value creation, sector specialization, and disciplined leverage rather than multiple expansion alone.

Sources & References

Bennet Jones. (2026). Canada's Q4 2025 M&A Landscape. https://www.bennettjones.com/Insights/Blogs/Canadas-Q4-2025-M-and-A-Landscape 

IMAA. (2026). Canada - M&A Statistics. https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/canada-ma-statistics/ 

Kroll. (2025). Canadian M&A Industry Insights–Winter 2025. https://www.kroll.com/en/publications/m-and-a/canadian-ma-industry-insights-winter-2025