Canada M&A: From Peak Euphoria to Selective Rebound

The data underscores how both capital availability and strategic conviction have evolved since 2015.

Cycle Peak and Post-Pandemic Surge

Between 2015 and 2019, Canadian deal value climbed from $225.9B to $325.9B, with volume rising from 2,184 to 3,892 transactions. The 2018 high of $341.7B across 4,275 deals marked the late-cycle expansion phase, supported by accommodative credit and strong cross-border appetite.

The true outlier, however, was 2021. Deal value surged to $506.8B, with 5,453 transactions, the highest in the dataset. This was a liquidity-driven market: low rates, sponsor dry powder, and aggressive corporate consolidation fueled record activity. Financial sponsors competed with strategics for scarce quality assets, compressing spreads and elevating EV/EBITDA multiples.

Repricing and Discipline

The subsequent normalization was sharp. In 2022, value fell to $282.5B and volume to 3,523 deals. By 2023 and 2024, activity stabilized around $225.5B and $210.7B, respectively, with annual deal counts hovering near 2,650.

This was not a collapse in transactional capability but a repricing environment. Rising interest rates increased the cost of leverage, reducing sponsor IRR tolerance for peak valuations. Bid-ask spreads widened. Sellers anchored to 2021 pricing; buyers underwrote to higher discount rates and slower exit assumptions.

The early 2025 data suggests renewed momentum. Deal value rebounded to $365.9B, while volume held steady at 2,655 transactions. The divergence between rising value and flat volume signals a return of larger ticket transactions rather than broad-based middle-market acceleration. Capital is flowing again, but selectively.

2025 Industry Breakdown: Infrastructure and Resources Take Control

The 2025 rebound in Canadian M&A was not broad-based. It was concentrated, capital intensive, and driven by infrastructure, energy security and resource scarcity.

Aggregate Canadian M&A value reached US$389.69 billion in 2025, surpassing even 2021 levels. Notably, this expansion occurred on slightly fewer deals, underscoring the dominance of large cap transactions. In Q3 alone, transaction value hit US$131 billion, the strongest three-month stretch since Q4 2020. Globally, the same pattern emerged, with megadeals pushing total M&A value to US$3.6 trillion, up 38% year over year.