Good morning, ! It's Wednesday and we're diving into the healthtech startup market. SEA deal value keeps growing, Yale is looking for $6B secondary sale, and the correlative link between private credit and private equity funds.

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DATA DIVE

Health Tech Startups: From Pandemic Spike to AI-Powered Maturity

The U.S. health tech landscape has shifted from pandemic-fueled deal frenzy to a more disciplined, innovation-driven phase. After peaking at 740 startup deals in 2021, the market has stabilized near 500 deals annually, signaling a strategic reset where investors are focusing on scale, efficiency, and real-world outcomes. 

Median deal sizes have normalized post-surge, yet capital remains evenly distributed across Series A to D+, reinforcing confidence in long-term category growth.

Artificial intelligence is taking center stage, its share of digital health investment has steadily risen, even as broader volumes cool, marking a clear shift in where investors see value creation. Meanwhile, category leaders like Devoted Health and Radiology Partners have crossed from high-potential to market-defining, signaling a new era of platform-scale healthcare delivery. As the health tech unicorn class matures, investor expectations have pivoted toward profitability, integration, and operational rigor. For strategics and funders alike, the next wave of winners will be built not just on innovation, but on execution. (Read or Listen To Full Report).

PRESENTED BY CONSUMER 150

The Tailored Economics Behind Your Favorite Hoodie

The apparel industry shook off its COVID sweatpants era and now eyes $2.04T by 2029, thanks to fast fashion, sustainability, and AI stylists. Inflation tried to crash the party: producer costs ballooned, but retail prices stayed tame, meaning brands took one for the team (and their margins). 

Meanwhile, December remains the Beyoncé of retail months, generating a 4% MoM sales spike. Under the hood, a regression model reveals the big spend drivers: personal income growth powers shopping sprees, saving habits choke them, and consumer vibes tip the scale. Pro tip: if you're timing investments, track these variables—because apparently, consumers spend based on how rich and how moody they feel. (Read or Listen To Full Report)

TREND OF THE WEEK

Southeast Asia Buyouts: Dollar Uptick, But Deal Flow Thins

Private equity dealmakers in Southeast Asia are showing signs of warming up again, kind of. Buyout value climbed to $9B in 2024, nearly double last year’s total, but the number of deals dropped to just 69, continuing a multi-year slide from the 2016 peak of 92.

The data paints a mixed picture: dry powder is clearly being deployed, but with sharper selectivity. The 2021 outlier ($44B in value, 76 deals) looks increasingly like a post-COVID anomaly rather than a baseline reset. Since then, both volume and momentum have cooled as PE shops adjust to valuation resets, slower exits, and macro volatility.

The takeaway? SEA is still on the radar, but GPs are picking their spots. Expect fewer, larger bets, especially in sectors tied to digital infrastructure, healthcare, and consumer resilience, as funds chase scaled exposure while sidestepping risk.

PRESENTED BY BUILD WEALTH

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LIQUIDITY CORNER

Liquidity Squeeze: Yale Eyes $6B Secondary Sale to Stay Liquid

Yale’s endowment, long the poster child for PE-heavy investing, is now confronting the dark side of illiquidity. Facing budget strains, three years of underperformance, and shrinking federal support, the $41.4B institution is looking to unload up to $6B in private equity fund interests, marking one of the largest-ever secondary market sales by a university.

The move comes as Yale stares down $6.5B in unfunded commitments, with less than $1B in federal support to cushion the blow. This mismatch is part of a broader reckoning for Ivy League endowments, many of which built empires on David Swensen’s “illiquidity premium” thesis, one now colliding with real-world cash constraints.

Yale insists the sale isn’t a retreat but a rebalancing. The endowment is still committing to new PE funds and remains over 90% weighted toward growth-oriented assets. But the signal is clear: secondary sales are becoming the liquidity release valve for even the most sophisticated LPs.

Bottom line: Yale's pivot may be tactical, but it’s a wake-up call for allocators chasing illiquid alpha without a cash-flow plan. When PE calls and public markets rally, something’s gotta give. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Boeing Streamlines with $10.55B Thoma Bravo Deal

Boeing just handed off a chunk of its Digital Aviation Solutions unit — including Jeppesen, ForeFlight, AerData, and OzRunways — to Thoma Bravo for $10.55 billion. It’s a carve-out designed to patch a balance sheet bleeding from $12 billion in losses and the Spirit AeroSystems acquisition slog. Boeing keeps its high-value fleet maintenance tech, while about 3,900 employees get split custody between the two companies. For Thoma Bravo, it’s a vintage software bet — buying a 90-year-old aviation brand and planning to turbocharge it. The deal, subject to regulatory blessings, should close by the end of 2025. Translation: Boeing is flying lighter, and Thoma Bravo just landed a legacy platform with serious altitude. (More)

TOGETHER WITH ENTREPRENEURIAL CAPITAL

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PRIVATE CREDIT

Sponsored Deals, Unsponsored Risks

Private equity and private credit aren't just neighbors—they're roommates. Over 81% of private credit AUM is managed by firms that also run PE funds. That’s not a coincidence; it’s a business model. On the demand side, PE sponsors back 72–77% of private credit deals in North America and Europe. That sponsor presence isn’t just window dressing—it mitigates credit risk and sweetens the lending profile. The kicker? As these channels deepen, so do questions around conflicts of interest, given overlapping LPs and portfolio ties. If private credit stumbles, PE doesn’t just trip—it faceplants. (More)

MICROSURVEY

Soft Landing? PE Sponsors Call BS, Bankers Less So

While corporate strategics and bankers are still clinging to the soft-landing narrative, private equity sponsors are singing a much gloomier tune.

According to our proprietary survey of 92 market participants. 45.5% of PE sponsors believe “the recession is already here”, the most bearish view of any group surveyed. Only 27.3% of PE respondents believe the soft landing remains intact, well below Corporate Dev (38.1%) and Investment Bankers (37.8%). Investment bankers, for their part, hedge: 43.2% expect a mild recession, the highest percentage among all three groups.

The divergence is stark, and telling. While dealmakers on the advisory and strategic side remain cautiously optimistic, PE sponsors appear to be prepping for real contraction beneath the surface. Whether that means more distressed plays or just tighter investment theses, one thing’s clear: sentiment is splitting across the M&A food chain. (More)

MACROVIEW

Monetary Chess: How the Fed and Wall Street Play the Rate Signal Game

Interest rate policy isn’t just economics—it’s strategy. Think of it as a high-stakes signaling game, with the Fed as the sender, markets as the decoder, and investment banks as the most sophisticated players on the board.

When the Fed moves rates, it's less about the immediate impact on liquidity and more about what that move implies. A hike can signal confidence or inflation fears. A cut? Either soft-landing engineering or incoming slowdown. The market’s job is to decode the signal under imperfect information—and it’s a game played in loops, not one-offs.

For bankers and asset allocators, this isn’t just macro theory—it’s operational. Investment desks analyze Fed language, actions, and even historical consistency to gauge hidden signals. Deviations from prior patterns (like easing in a strong labor market) raise red flags—and portfolios adjust in real-time. (More)

THIS WEEK IN HISTORY

Chernobyl’s Fallout, and the Bill That Never Stopped Growing

April 26, 1986: The Chernobyl disaster didn’t just devastate lives, it reshaped economies. Over the next two decades, Belarus, Ukraine, and Russia faced hundreds of billions in costs, with Belarus alone estimating losses of $235 billion. 

Agriculture collapsed across 784,000+ hectares of contaminated land, and industries tied to food and timber production crumbled under the stigma.

Even today, Ukraine allocates 5–7% of its national budget to Chernobyl-related benefits, while poverty, low wages, and stunted private investment continue to plague affected regions. 

Beyond the environmental tragedy, Chernobyl stands as a sharp economic warning: tail risks can trigger cascading fiscal crises that outlast any news cycle, a reality that today’s investors and institutions would do well to remember. (More)

INTERESTING ARTICLES

Why are Canadian pension funds pivoting to private equity partnerships as pressure on direct investing mounts?

What drove the $37.5B in private equity deals across 266 transactions in ASPAC during Q1’25?

What factors contributed to the modest recovery of the Greater China private equity market in 2024?

How has Trump used tariffs as an economic tool to advance aggressive geopolitical objectives?

TWEET OF THE WEEK

"Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning."

Bill Gates