What Our Survey Reveals About the Soft-Landing Narrative, and What It Means Going Forward

With 92 respondents spanning Corporate Development, Investment Banking, and Private Equity Sponsorship, the results painted a vivid picture of how different corners of the deal ecosystem are viewing the months ahead.

At a high level, the responses split into three camps:

• Those who believe the economy is still intact with no hard crash ahead.
  

• Those who think a mild recession is likely, acknowledging the delayed effects of monetary tightening.
  

• And those convinced the recession is already here, citing early signs of economic contraction under the surface.
  

Private Equity Sponsors stood out starkly, with 45.5% believing a recession is already underway, the most bearish view among the groups. Only 27.3% believed the soft landing narrative remains intact, indicating heightened skepticism from those who are closest to portfolio company operations and credit markets. Their day-to-day exposure to cash flows, financing conditions, and hiring trends might explain this realism, or pessimism.

Investment Bankers, meanwhile, showed the strongest belief in a mild recession scenario, with 43.2% picking that option. Their perspective reflects a pragmatic acknowledgment of slowing activity and rate lag effects, without fully conceding to a recessionary outcome. A still-healthy M&A pipeline and robust fundraising (albeit at compressed valuations) likely keep their outlook moderately constructive.

Corporate Development respondents were the most balanced: 38.1% expect a mild recession, but just as many believe the soft landing is intact. This group, often focused on long-term strategy and internal capital deployment, might be viewing the current slowdown as cyclical rather than structural.

The  soft landing narrative remains intact, but increasingly fragile. The U.S. economy has shown resilience: inflation has moderated, consumer spending is stable, and labor markets have cooled without collapsing. The Federal Reserve has paused further rate hikes, aiming to give the lagging effects of previous tightening time to work through the system.

But beneath the surface, cracks are forming.

• The IMF has downgraded global growth projections, citing persistent geopolitical tensions and sluggish manufacturing demand.
  

• Consumer confidence has wobbled, pressured by sticky prices in services and recent trade tensions flaring back up.
  

• Leading indicators like freight volumes, new housing permits, and small business hiring are flashing yellow.
  

If this is a soft landing, it’s one flying low and slow, with plenty of turbulence.

The key takeaway from our survey? Where you sit shapes how you see. Those closer to real operations and credit (PE Sponsors) are more cautious, while those more exposed to capital markets and transactional momentum (Bankers, Corp Dev) are still relatively upbeat. That divergence in sentiment should serve as a signal: there is no consensus, and planning for multiple outcomes is more critical than ever.

For investors, that means stress-testing portfolios. For operators, it means being judicious with capital allocation and headcount decisions. And for dealmakers, it may be time to explore structured equity, earn-outs, or other tools that provide downside protection while keeping upside in play.

In short, our microsurvey confirms that while the soft landing remains the official story, many on the ground aren’t buying it fully. The next few months will tell us whether this is a pause before reacceleration, or the calm before a sharper downturn. Stay close to the data, stay flexible, and keep listening, both to the market and to each other.