Good morning, {{First Name}}! This week, we’re looking at private capital’s growing infrastructure push, the rebound in tech fundraising, and whether AI adoption is finally starting to show up in the P&L.

Plus, why adding sales reps doesn’t always translate into growth, and the UK’s increasingly tight balancing act between weak growth, sticky inflation, and fiscal pressure.

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DATA DIVE

Infrastructure is attracting a growing share of private capital. Global infrastructure fundraising reached nearly $200 billion in 2025, up almost 60% from 2024 and above the previous record of $180 billion set in 2022.

LP appetite suggests the momentum could continue. In McKinsey’s survey of roughly 300 global LPs, 51% plan to increase infrastructure allocations over the next three years, compared with 35% for buyout and 30% for real estate.

Energy sits at the center of that shift. McKinsey estimates roughly $23 trillion of energy and power infrastructure investment will be required through 2040.

For private equity, that creates opportunities beyond traditional infrastructure assets—from power generation and grid development to equipment, services and other infrastructure-adjacent businesses.

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TREND TO WATCH

Global tech focused private equity fundraising just posted its strongest quarter in more than a year. Fund value reached $31B in Q3 2026, up from $10B in Q2 and $15B in Q1, according to PitchBook.

The rebound matters because the category had been stuck in a much weaker fundraising rhythm since the $40B raised in Q2 2025. Q3 2026 is still below that recent peak, but the acceleration is hard to ignore. Capital is returning to technology strategies after several uneven quarters, suggesting LP appetite may be improving as managers come back to market.

For sponsors, the more important question is whether this becomes sustained fundraising momentum or another temporary spike. Tech funds still need to compete for capital in a selective LP environment, where track record, realizations, and differentiation matter more than sector exposure alone.

Bottom line: Tech fundraising is recovering, but the next few quarters will determine whether $31B marks a reset or simply another burst of activity. (More)

JOIN OUR AI / DATA PRIVATE CAPITAL BREAKFAST

Stat: McKinsey data shows median annual revenue per employee rises from $99K at Level 1 AI maturity to $118K at Level 2, a 19% increase. The gap is even wider at the lower end of the distribution, where revenue per employee moves from $43K to $70K.

Context: The distinction is not simply who has access to AI. Level 1 companies are largely experimenting with individual productivity tools, while Level 2 companies embed AI into operating workflows. That matters because isolated time savings do not automatically become better economics. Sponsors need shared infrastructure, reusable workflows, role specific training, governance and KPIs that connect AI deployment to financial performance.

Strategic Takeaway: For PE, AI adoption is becoming an operating model question. The real KPI is not prompts submitted or licenses activated. It is whether AI improves revenue per employee, margins, sales capacity and ultimately EBITDA. The opportunity is to identify workflows that work in one portfolio company, institutionalize them, then redeploy them across the fund.

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DILIGENCE CORNER BY 150 DILIGENCE

A growing sales team can make a growth story look scalable. The harder diligence question is whether each new seller is actually becoming productive.

McKinsey studied nearly 500 B2B companies and found that top quartile sales organizations generated roughly 2.5 times more gross margin per dollar invested in sales than bottom quartile peers. Leading companies also increased revenue per sales employee by 3% to 15% through better account prioritization and improved sales execution.

BCG finds another lever hiding beneath the headcount number. B2B companies may be leaving 5% to 10% of annual net revenue uplift on the table by underusing sales analytics across lead generation, nurturing, and prioritization.

For investors, that changes the diligence exercise. Adding twenty salespeople proves capacity is growing. It does not prove the sales model is scaling.

The real questions are whether revenue per seller is improving, ramp periods are stable, quota attainment holds as the team expands, and incremental sales investment continues producing attractive returns.

Bottom line: underwrite sales productivity, not sales headcount. (More)

MACROVIEW

The UK economy is still growing, but policymakers have less room to support it. September’s Composite PMI slipped from 52.5 to 51.7, with S&P Global estimating the latest reading is consistent with quarterly GDP growth of only 0.1%. At the same time, inflation pressures are rebuilding as higher energy, wage and operating costs feed into prices.

The fiscal picture adds another constraint. Public sector borrowing reached £18.3 billion in August, pushing borrowing for the fiscal year to £77.3 billion, or £8.1 billion above the OBR trajectory. Higher gilt yields make that overshoot increasingly expensive.

For private markets, the combination matters. Weak growth argues for lower rates, but persistent inflation limits the Bank of England’s ability to provide relief, while fiscal pressures constrain the government’s response.

The result is a narrow policy corridor where financing costs may remain elevated even as economic momentum softens.

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