Timing the Exit: What’s Driving Hold vs. Sell Decisions

In today’s uncertain deal environment, timing an exit has become as strategic as choosing the exit route itself.

According to our latest PE150 micro survey, there’s no single trigger shaping the sell-or-hold calculus, but the split across respondent groups reveals what each segment fears (or watches) most.

Across all respondents, the top influences are remarkably even: geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty (23%), interest rates / cost of capital (20%), and portfolio company performance trajectory (20%). That balance highlights how multiple headwinds, from capital costs to global volatility, are weighing equally on exit timing.

Sponsors vs. Strategics: Two Different Realities

For private equity sponsors, the story is far more concentrated. Nearly half (45%) cite macroeconomic uncertainty as the single biggest factor influencing exit timing — a reflection of how tightly their returns are linked to public market sentiment and debt market conditions. Another 27% point to interest rates and cost of capital, showing how higher financing costs continue to freeze leverage-dependent transactions.

By contrast, corporate development teams are less macro-driven and more market-driven. 36% point to buyer demand and sector consolidation trends as their top influence, suggesting that strategic acquirers are timing exits — and acquisitions — around windows of competitive advantage rather than macro cycles.

Bankers remain evenly split, with roughly one-fifth selecting each factor — mirroring their role as intermediaries navigating between buyer appetite, sponsor timing, and valuation dynamics.

Consultants See a Clear Pattern

If anyone sees the forest for the trees, it’s the consultants. Two-thirds (67%) cite portfolio company performance as the key determinant of exit timing — underscoring how the fundamentals of the asset itself are now dictating when to sell. In a world where exit multiples are harder to defend, performance clarity and EBITDA resilience may matter more than external timing signals.

A Market in Wait Mode

The takeaway? The exit clock is still ticking — just more slowly.
For most firms, the “go” or “no-go” decision on a sale isn’t being made in isolation; it’s a delicate balance between macro conditions, company-level metrics, and market signals.

While macro factors like rates and geopolitics dominate sponsor thinking, strategics and consultants are turning inward — focusing on execution quality, sector positioning, and buyer readiness.

That divergence tells us something important about 2025: timing is no longer about catching the market—it’s about controlling the controllables.