The Quiet Rise of Tender Offers. The Loud Return of Oil & Gas.

Good morning, ! This week we're covering oil & gas as a tax breaking investment opportunity, tender offers to be the most likely liquidity event in private equity, Petter Witte’s expert call on the exit landscape, and what are the top PE priorities over the next 6 months. Want to advertise in PE 150? Check out our self-serve ad platform, here.

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DATA DIVE

Tax Alpha in a Barrel

U.S. oil & gas isn’t just a bet on hydrocarbons—it’s a tax strategy dressed as an investment. With intangible drilling costs (IDCs) deductible in year one (up to 80% of spend), active income treatment, and 15% depletion allowances, these deals can offset W-2 income and dodge the Alternative Minimum Tax altogether. Add rising non-OECD demand (expected to hit 72% of global oil use by 2050) and low U.S. breakevens, and suddenly this “boring” asset class becomes a yield machine with a policy tailwind. For PE firms chasing alpha post-IRA, this is as close to a government-subsidized cashflow fountain as it gets.

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TREND OF THE WEEK

The Great Exit Rush

Half of PE investors now say exiting portfolio companies is their top priority—an eye-popping 50%, far outpacing anything involving new deals. Capital deployment (21%) and balanced approaches (23%) are still on the board, but they’re JV players in a varsity exit season. The rebound in U.S. exit values and selective IPOs has reopened the window just enough for GPs to start clearing multi-year backlogs. Translation: the fund clock is ticking loud enough to drown out valuation complaints. Expect GPs to bring forward their cleanest, most “ready-to-sell” assets, while weaker names get warehoused or pushed into continuation vehicles. For LPs, 2026 vintages look set for improved liquidity, but with a quality bias. Secondary buyers and co-investors should prepare for a wave of crown-jewel opportunities—priced to move, but not to regret. (More)

COMPLIANCE CORNER

MNPI: The Silent Trap for PE Firms

For private-equity firms, Material Nonpublic Information (MNPI) has become a quiet but growing regulatory risk. As PE strategies increasingly intersect with public-company data, credit workouts, PIPEs, and expert-network relationships, firms often handle sensitive information without realizing it. The SEC has made clear that even unintentional exposure can trigger violations if advisers lack “reasonably designed” MNPI controls under Section 204A of the Investment Advisers Act.

Recent enforcement actions show the danger: firms have been penalized even without evidence of trading, simply for failing to enforce internal policies, maintain restricted lists, or supervise access persons with adequate pre-clearance and reporting systems. As private markets expand, the attack surface for MNPI leakage widens.

To stay ahead, PE firms need robust codes of ethics, information-barriers, and documented oversight. In today’s environment, not having MNPI misuse isn’t enough — regulators expect proof that you prevented it. (More)

LIQUIDITY CORNER

Tender Offers Take the Lead

Forget the IPO pop—for many private companies, the next liquidity event is far more controlled. According to Morgan Stanley, 39% of respondents say a tender offer is the most likely next step, outpacing IPOs (31%) and M&A exits (17%) by a clear margin.

Tender offers, often backed by secondary buyers or existing investors, allow partial liquidity while keeping companies private. That’s increasingly appealing in a world where public markets are volatile, M&A buyers are selective, and valuations are under pressure. This route also sidesteps the scrutiny and lockups of an IPO—yet still returns cash to employees and early investors.

Why it matters: liquidity is no longer synonymous with exit. For PE-backed and VC-backed firms alike, tender offers have become the preferred way to buy time, retain talent, and avoid price discovery—at least for now. (More)

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MACROVIEW

A World of Debt: Global Debt Surpasses $100T

Global public debt has topped $100 trillion, but the real headline? It's not just ballooning—it's suffocating. Developing economies now carry twice the debt growth of advanced nations since 2010, with little to show in GDP or revenue. As interest payments outpace human development budgets, more countries are falling into the 60% debt-to-GDP club—58 and counting. Structurally, this isn’t just bad luck—it’s a broken financial system where the math doesn’t pencil. PE folks eyeing growth markets? Watch for mounting refinancing risks and FX exposures that could flip sovereigns from borrower to basket case overnight. (More)

EXPERT CALL INSIGHTS

Inside the 2026 Exit Cycle: Real Momentum or Another False Start?

The private equity exit engine is finally rumbling back to life—and in our interview with EY’s Peter Witte, one of the industry’s most trusted liquidity analysts, he told us why this time feels different. Announced exits are up, deal sizes are expanding, and settlement activity is accelerating, signaling that deals aren’t just being launched—they’re actually closing. But the real unlock may be GPs finally tackling the 6–7+ year asset overhang weighing down portfolios. Half the industry is now willing to take 5–10% valuation haircuts to restore DPI and reset momentum. Meanwhile, strategics have reclaimed the buyer seat, continuation vehicles are institutionalizing, and NAV financing is becoming embedded in the market’s DNA.
The next 3–6 months will reveal whether this is a real exit cycle—or another fleeting uptick. (More)

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