Microsurvey Insights: Private Equity Sees Growth, but Consensus Remains Elusive

Our latest survey reveals a market that is increasingly optimistic about the U.S. economy, but far from unanimous. While recession expectations have moderated across much of the private equity ecosystem, respondents remain divided over the pace of growth, highlighting meaningful differences between investors, advisors, and corporate acquirers.

Across all respondents, 44% expect the U.S. economy to expand over the next 12 months, with 23% forecasting moderate expansion (2%–3% GDP growth) and 21% anticipating strong expansion above 3%. At the same time, 38% still expect some form of recession, split almost evenly between mild (19%) and deep (18%), while 20% believe the economy will simply experience slow growth. Rather than signaling a clear macro consensus, the results suggest that investors continue to prepare for multiple potential economic scenarios.

The sharpest divergence appears across industry roles.

Private equity sponsors are the most optimistic group in the survey. Nearly half (45%) expect strong economic expansion, while another 27% anticipate moderate growth. Only 18% foresee any form of recession, making sponsors considerably more bullish than the overall sample. This optimism likely reflects improving financing conditions, expectations for stronger deal activity, and confidence in portfolio company performance after several years of elevated interest rates and muted transaction volumes.

Investment bankers also lean constructive. More than half (56%) expect economic expansion, including 24% forecasting strong growth and 32% expecting moderate expansion. Only 29% anticipate recessionary conditions. Given bankers' close connection to transaction pipelines and capital markets, their outlook may indicate growing confidence that M&A and financing activity will continue to recover throughout the coming year.

Consultants present perhaps the most balanced perspective. While 58% expect expansion, they also report the highest share of respondents predicting a deep recession (29%) among advisory groups. Combined with another 7% expecting a mild recession, consultant opinions appear highly polarized. This split likely reflects exposure to a broad range of industries and clients, with some sectors showing strong momentum while others continue to face structural challenges.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, corporate development teams remain notably cautious. A combined 51% expect recession, including 38% forecasting a mild downturn and 13% anticipating a deep recession. Another 50% expect only slow growth, while none forecast moderate or strong expansion. Corporate acquirers may be taking a more conservative view as they weigh capital allocation decisions, operational risks, and continued uncertainty around demand, labor costs, and geopolitical conditions.

Asset managers occupy the middle ground. Their responses are distributed relatively evenly across all five scenarios, illustrating a preference for diversification over conviction. This balanced outlook is consistent with portfolio managers who must remain positioned across a range of possible macro outcomes rather than relying on a single economic forecast.

The broader takeaway is not that the market has reached agreement on where the economy is heading—but that expectations are becoming increasingly fragmented by role and incentives. Transaction-focused participants such as sponsors and bankers generally expect stronger growth, while strategic corporate buyers remain considerably more defensive.

For private equity investors, that divergence is itself informative. When participants closest to capital deployment become increasingly optimistic while strategic buyers remain cautious, it often creates both opportunity and valuation disconnects. Understanding how different market participants view the economic outlook can provide valuable context for underwriting assumptions, exit timing, and investment strategy in the quarters ahead.