Golden Goose at €2.5B, $1.03T in PE Deals, and Direct Lending’s Mega Shift

Good morning, ! Today we're covering how direct lending is expanding into larger transactions, US Private Equity deals hit $1.03T in the last 12 months, and HSG nears a deal to buy Golden Goose for over €2.5B. 

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DEAL OF THE WEEK

Golden Goose Finds a New Nest

HSG, the private investment firm formerly known as Sequoia Capital China, is nearing a buyout of Golden Goose, valuing the Italian premium leisure footwear brand at over €2.5bn.

If completed, the deal delivers a clean exit for Permira, which bought the brand in 2020 for €1.3bn and shelved a 2024 IPO as equity markets lost their appetite for luxury stories.

Golden Goose isn’t just vibes and scuffed sneakers. The company runs 227 directly operated stores globally and grew revenue 13% to €655m in 2024, outperforming a broader luxury sector that’s been stuck in neutral.

For HSG, this marks a meaningful European expansion—and a bet that brand heat plus operational control can still justify premium multiples, even when public markets say “maybe next year.” (More)

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PRIVATE CREDIT

 Where the Downgrades Are

S&P’s latest credit estimate data shows private credit risk is clustering—and not where you might expect.

Despite software having the highest exposure to total credit estimates (12.9%), it’s seen more upgrades than downgrades (32 vs. 18), yielding a DG-to-UG ratio of just 0.6. In contrast, sectors with smaller footprints are flashing red.

Commercial services and supplies lead the downgrade pack with a 2.9 DG-to-UG ratio, followed closely by diversified consumer services (2.3) and construction and engineering (7 downgrades for every 1 upgrade). Healthcare is also under pressure, with 29 downgrades, the most of any sector.

This dispersion in credit quality has clear implications for private credit allocators and sponsors. Some mid-sized service sectors are absorbing more stress than headline categories suggest. Meanwhile, software and IT—despite valuation volatility—are holding up better from a creditworthiness standpoint.

Bottom line: In a market where downgrades are no longer systemic, credit underwriting must be increasingly sector-specific. Risk isn’t evenly distributed—and private lenders need to act accordingly. (More)

MICROSURVEY

REGIONAL FOCUS

Regional Deal Flow Finds Its Rhythm

US private equity is settling into a steadier cadence as deal value inches higher and TTM activity tops $1.03T, outpacing both 2023 and year-to-date 2025. The headline: stabilization is real, but highly regional. The West Coast continues to draw tech buyers at more disciplined valuations, while the Northeast leans on its resilient healthcare and financial services base. The South and Southeast are the breakout story, fueled by population inflows and strong pipelines in industrials, logistics, and consumer platforms. Meanwhile, the Midwest remains steady, driven by consolidation across manufacturing and business services. With 2025 deal value already ahead of 2023 and activity firming, sponsors are rediscovering regional strengths rather than chasing national momentum. (More)

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