40+ Cars Per Charger, Hologic $14.7B Deal & Liquidity Pressure Trends

Good morning, ! This week we're covering private equity’s role in the booming world of EV charging infrastructure, bold healthcare take-privates like Hologic, the surge of strategic buyers in PE exits, and how private credit is patiently reshaping deal dynamics across the globe.

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DATA DIVE

Charge It to Growth

EV Charging stations are booming—on paper. The U.S. market alone is set to grow from $7.5B in 2022 to $114B by 2040, a 16.3% CAGR. Federal support is flowing ($623M in grants this year), but the real opportunity is in the infrastructure lag. EVs are outselling chargers, with some states seeing 40+ cars per port.

Operators face grid constraints and capital fatigue, creating room for PE to play matchmaker between tech, real estate, and utility partners. The winners? Platforms that can go beyond hardware and monetize O&M and software. The losers? States with one charger per 18,000 people.

Read the Full Report HERE

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TREND OF THE WEEK

Exit Values Are Back (But Volumes Still Ghosting)

Private equity exits are having a split personality in H1 2025. On one hand, the number of U.S. exits fell 14% from late 2024. On the other hand, exit value surged to $187B—nearly doubling H2 2024 and the best showing since 2021.
The culprit (or hero, depending on your carry): strategic buyers. Trade sales more than doubled compared to both halves of 2024, while secondary buyouts barely got out of bed.

The bottom line: GPs aren’t partying like it’s 2021, but they are rediscovering the joys of liquidity when strategics are hungry. Call it “fewer deals, fatter checks.” (More)

LIQUIDITY CORNER

The Liquidity Clock Is Ticking—Louder for Some

Pressure to exit isn’t evenly distributed—it’s structural.

According to Morgan Stanley, 37% of companies that have been in business for over 10 years feel strong pressure to facilitate a liquidity event, compared to just 15% of younger firms. For Series C+ companies, that number jumps to 30%, more than double the pressure reported at the Series A–B stage (14%).

The trend is clear: the older or more mature the company—or the deeper into the capital stack it is—the more intense the pressure to deliver liquidity to LPs, founders, and employees.

Why it matters: With IPO markets still tentative and M&A selective, liquidity expectations are outpacing exit availability. That gap is fueling demand for secondary solutions, NAV loans, and continuation funds. For GPs, the challenge isn’t just finding the door—it’s opening it without breaking the frame. (More)

DEAL OF THE WEEK

Blackstone & TPG Reignite $15B Bid for Hologic

Two of private equity’s heavyweight firms—Blackstone and TPG—are back in the hunt for Hologic, a $14.7B women’s health diagnostics company, in what could be one of 2025’s largest healthcare take-privates.

The firms had previously floated a $16B (incl. debt) offer back in May, which was rejected. But with Hologic’s share price down and CEO Steve MacMillan reportedly set to receive a $40M change-of-control payout, the timing may now be more favorable. The target’s fundamentals are strong: Hologic recently beat earnings and raised FY26 guidance on the back of gains in molecular diagnostics and interventional breast care.

The deal—still in diligence—would mark a bold bet on diagnostics and women’s health amid a cooling in broader healthcare M&A. It also fits the growing PE playbook of targeting undervalued public companies with long-term cash flow potential.

Why it matters: If it goes through, this would reset the tone for large-cap healthcare transactions in a market still recovering from 2023’s valuation reset. Expect more sponsors to test the waters with public-to-private diagnostics and medtech deals—especially in sectors with secular tailwinds. (More)

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PRIVATE CREDIT

Private Credit's Patience Game

As the M&A ice starts to crack, one question looms: Will private credit thaw in time? Sponsors are getting itchy, but lenders are still skeptical.

Private credit funds are standing on the sidelines while private equity firms are pacing the field. Nearly half of PE sponsors (45%) say new M&A is the biggest opportunity ahead—versus a mere 14% of private lenders. Why the gap? Because GPs are sitting on a time bomb of dry powder, while lenders are still pricing in geopolitical uncertainty. It’s a Mexican standoff, with one side watching the clock and the other watching the Fed. But if buyout appetite returns, credit deployment will surge, especially as refinancings dry up. Bonus plot twist: European credit managers are increasingly peeking at emerging markets, a move less tempting for their US peers spoiled by depth at home. (More)

MICROSURVEY

MACROVIEW

The Fed’s 25bp Tightrope

The Fed’s first cut since December was more of a tightrope act than a pivot. By lowering the target range to 4.00%–4.25%, Powell is trying to manage rising jobless claims without fueling inflation déjà vu. The move came with dissent—Governor Stephen Miran wanted a 50bp cut—but the committee stuck with “measured.” That’s code for: “We’re flying blind, but gently.” With inflation creeping to 2.9% YoY and unemployment now at 4.3%, the nightmare scenario is stagflation, not a hard landing. Treasury yields popped on mixed labor data, keeping the yield curve flatter than a Kansas pancake, even as the Fed tiptoes toward neutral. For PE, it’s still too early to call “game on”—but if you're sitting on rate-sensitive assets or dry powder, the time to stretch is now. (More)

THIS WEEK IN HISTORY

Lincoln’s Proclamation: A Deal Term Sheet for Freedom

On September 22, 1862, President Lincoln issued the Preliminary Emancipation Proclamation, giving Confederate states a stark deadline: rejoin the Union by January 1, 1863—or slavery ends in your territory.

The move reframed the Civil War from a fight over secession to a fight over slavery, reshaping both politics and economics. Europe, particularly Britain and France, backed off supporting the Confederacy, unwilling to be seen as pro-slavery.

By the numbers: nearly 4 million enslaved people in 1860, 180,000 African Americans joining Union forces, and cotton exports collapsing from 4M bales in 1860 to 300k in 1865.

The bottom line: Lincoln issued more than a military strategy—he restructured the Union’s entire cap table of freedom. (More)

COMPLIANCE CORNER

The Compliance Triple Threat

Private equity firms are fighting a three-front war on regulatory risk: at the fund level, across portfolios, and deep inside individual portfolio companies. The compliance terrain is only getting steeper, as US and EU watchdogs add ESG rules, data privacy laws, and cross-border tech restrictions to the old playbook of antitrust and disclosure enforcement. Noncompliance now comes with a high price tag—penalties, lawsuits, and investor exits. But here’s the kicker: firms that bake compliance into M&A due diligence and portfolio oversight aren’t just surviving—they’re winning. A robust compliance operating model is less about legal box-checking, and more about building deal resilience and exit-readiness from Day 1. (More)

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TWEET OF THE WEEK

"There's no shortage of remarkable ideas, what's missing is the will to execute them."

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